UFC 136 Picks and Predictions (The Gambler’s Perspective).
Posted on | October 7, 2011 | No Comments
Preliminary card (Spike TV)
Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens
In the first televised bout we have two exciting light weights trying to ascend their way up the 155lb ladder. Pettis is coming off a disappointing loss against Clay Guida where his average takedown defense was exploited. Although he didn’t come away the victor he still showed why he’s one of the most dynamic fighters in the division with his excellent guard game, constantly threatening Guida with submission attempts off his back.
On the other hand we have Stephens who just beat Danny Downes (a teammate of Pettis) in a somewhat unimpressive performance. From what I remember of the fight Stephens had ample opportunity to put away Downes but couldn’t do it. Against a guy of Pett’s’ caliber I can’t see how Stephens pulls out a victory here. On the feet he is at a disadvantage due to Pettis’ excellent standup, and if the fight goes to the floor I expect Anthony to lock up a triangle or an armbar from the bottom.
Pettis has a lot riding on this fight and is probably more motivated than ever to prove that his run in the WEC wasn’t a fluke. I think he’ll take out his frustrations against Stephens in a tough, dominating 3 round decision. Possible fight of the night. Even though Pettis should win I’m not putting any money on him. Stephens is tougher than the oddsmakers are making him out to be so I have to avoid this one.
Pick: Anthony Pettis (no play)
Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago
This is a pretty intriguing matchup and definitely a sleeper on this card. Maia and Santiago are both BJJ black belts, however Maia is the more decorated grappler having won several prestigious grappling competitions including the most famous of them all ADCC in both 2005 and 2007. Even though they’re somewhat evenly matched I have to go with Maia here. He’s worked on his strength and conditioning as well as his boxing. Santiago seems to be the same fighter he was before. Solid, but nothing in particular standing out. Even with Santiago’s mediocre chin I don’t see Damien knocking him out. Maia should grind out a unanimous decision here without much difficulty.
Pick: Demian Maia (no play)
Main Card
Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon
No matter what happens in this fight, we all win. Don’t expect this one to last more than 2 rounds as the explosive Melvin Guillard takes on the submission wizard Joe Lauzon. Realistically the most likely outcome for this fight is for Melvin Guillard to KO/TKO Lauzon, but if Lauzon latches on a submission (Guillard’s Achilles heel) then I don’t expect Guillard to survive it. The difference here will be Melvin’s exceptional athleticism and underrated wrestling. Although Joe is a decent athlete, Melvin is an elite athlete and that will be put on display early on in the fight. Expect fireworks with Guillard winning in devastating fashion with a first round KO.
Pick Melvin Guillard (play rating 4/5)
Featherweight bout: Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan
In the most epic rematch in recent hist… Scratch that, who are we kidding? Leonard “I pay the judges in bricks of coke” Garcia takes on Nam Phan in what should be another fight of the night candidate. If you’ve ever seen Leonard fight you kind of wonder what kind of spell he puts the judges under to declare him the winner at the end of 3 rounds. Is it the looping overhand rights that miss with abundance? Is it the sloppy technique mixed in with the loud grunts he makes after missing like Stevie Wonder at a shooting range? Who knows. All I know is that Nam Phan was robbed the last time they fought. Leonard showed improvement and more discipline in his last fight against The Korean Zombie, but I don’t think that will be enough against Nam Phan who is one of the best strikers at 145. I expect Nam to use an array of kicks and combos to pick apart Garcia and exact his revenge. Look for a lot of body shots from Phan as he wears down Garica en route to a 3 round unanimous decision victory.
Pick – Nam Phan (play rating 5/5)
Middleweight bout: Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann
After coming off a long layoff and a heartbreaking championship loss to Anderson Silva one has to wonder where Sonnen’s head is at. Does he still have the desire and fire to get back to a championship bout? We’ll see as he faces his stiffest test in a while against Brian Stann. Stann’s best (and only) chance of winning is to keep Chael at bay with his superior standup. Unfortunately for Brian he’s going to be facing the best wrestler in the Middleweight division. While Stann is ok off of his back I don’t see him being able to submit Chael once the fight goes to the canvas. Sonnen will grind out a unanimous decision win but it won’t be pretty. My only reason for not putting money on Sonnen is the fact that he’s been away for more than a year, and Stann has been on a roll lately. Chael also looked a bit depleted at the weigh-ins, so it’s difficult to tell what kind of drain the weight cut took on him.
Pick Chael Sonnen (no play)
Featherweight Championship bout: José Aldo (c) vs. Kenny Florian
In the co-main event of the evening we have Kenny Florian taking on one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world in José Aldo. Coming off a tough decision win against Diego Nunes, I’m curious as to what Florian comes up with for a game plan against the much better striker in Aldo. Not only did Florian almost lose his featherweight debut but the drop down in weight looks like it took a toll on his body. Similarly, Aldo also had a very difficult time in cutting weight in his bout against Mark Hominick, but still managed to look good up until the last round where it looked like he had gassed out. With all that being said I still like Aldo to win pretty decisively. Kenny’s only advantage is his height, and unless he can utilize that to his full advantage it’s going to be a short night for him. The key for Kenny is to stay on the outside and use kicks to score points and play it safe. Speed kills and Aldo will prove that as he wins via TKO some time in the 3rd round.
Pick José Aldo (play rating 4/5)
Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Gray Maynard
January 1, 2011 marked the date of one of the most exciting comebacks in MMA history. After being knocked down repeatedly in the first round, Frankie Edgar defied all logic by coming back and almost defeated Gray Maynard. Instead he had to settle for a draw leaving the state of the lightweight division in purgatory while both fighters healed up from injuries. Finally the end of the trilogy is among us. Who will win? This fight is literally a toss-up, as both fighters are now pick ‘ems according to Vegas after Edgar started out as the favorite.
I have to go out on a limb here and say Gray Maynard gets over the hump and finally wins the championship. From what I’ve seen over the last week or 2, Gray appears to have the psychological edge. Frankie didn’t look very confident talking about the 2nd time they fought, and at the weigh-ins Gray looked like he was in his head. Edgar has to use his speed and score points with combos if he wants to win this fight. Gray is the larger and stronger fighter and he won’t make the same mistake he made last time. This should be an excellent fight but at the end of the Gray is going to be too tough for Edgar to handle this time around.
Pick Gray Maynard (play rating 3/5)
Final bets: Guillard/Aldo parlay, Nam Phan, and Gray Maynard.
Feel free to leave questions and comments in the comments box or hit me up on Twitter @KimuraKev
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